Sunday, 10 August 2014

Copy that?

In the beginning, there was the AnyTone AT-588. The market beheld it, and saw that it was good.

The AT-588 was the standard for Chinese FM mobiles. Originally marketed for taxis, delivery vehicle fleets, construction sites, and quasi-law enforcement use, the success of the BaoFeng HT revealed the potential of the amateur radio market. At the time, Japanese FM monoband radios were much more expensive than now. The emergence of the AT-588 put pressure on Japanese manufacturers to both lower prices and also come up with more "basic" mobiles. It's currently not hard to find a Kenwood TM-281A or Yaesu FT-1900R for around $160, while you would have paid around $230 two years ago. The AT-588 is now selling for roughly the same price as its Japanese counterparts, which squeezes Anytone's profit margins.

While AnyTone bore the development costs of the AT-588 (dies and tooling, engineering, supplier prototyping of components, testing, etc.), other Chinese manufacturers were able to simply copy the AT-588 and save those costs. The TYT TH-9000 is virtually identical to the AT-588, except for the silk-screening on the front and the die-cast case around the speaker. TYT's more 'original' monoband -- the TH-8900 -- didn't sell as well. AnyTone successfully sued TYT in Chinese courts (amazing in itself) for what amounted to copyright infringement (which is highly ironic). The TH-9000 was ordered to be discontinued.

Thus, the TH-9000D was born, which was imperceptibly changed just enough to avoid further legal action.

Other Chinese manufacturers, however, are jumping into the fray and under-cutting the under-cutters.
Take a look at the TID TD-M558 monoband, which is currently arriving on the market. TID even copied the lousy microphone design that TYT 'pioneered'. Or check out the Vitai VT-5188 monoband FM radio. The Zastone MP-600 is another option. Or the identical Luiton LT-9000 monoband. How about the VGC VR-2200? The AnyTalk TM-8600 at least mixes things up a bit by putting the mic jack on the left side of the radio and re-arranging the buttons.

If you are worried that a Motorola CM-300 monoband rig might seem too pretentious, you can get a Motola (no, that's not mis-spelled) EM-300 from KST.

Notice any similarities between the HYS TC-171 and the (now discontinued) Kenwood TM-271 monoband?

Also intriguing is the Vitai FT-857D. It's a copy of the Yaesu FT-857D, only with a detachable face. They didn't even bother to change the model name. It ships with a copy of the Yaesu manual, in fact. It seems that Vitai is actually a supplier to the big Japanese brands Icom, Kenwood, Yaesu, and also Motorola. Those hams that spurn "Chinese junk" and buy a Japanese model may very well end up with a Chinese-made radio.

I think that it's unlikely we'll see a flood of knock-off HF radios, however.. The market for AM/SSB/CW HF radios is quite small,  when compared to FM. And FM is only used on 10M (as far as HF goes), and even then only by General Class licensees or above.

Certainly, YouKits has had some success with QRP CW rigs (HB-1A and its variants). They are currently developing a 40/20/15/10M SSB/CW 20W portable rig -- the TJ5A -- for $455 (assembled) with battery and pack. And the 5W TJ2B (think large HT form-factor) for 60/40/20/17/15M SSB radio has been popular, and can be made to work PSK with external equipment. CRKits also makes a very bare-bones 40M SSB single-frequency 10W rig for $220 assembled with speaker mic. And $80 will get you their bare-bones 3W CW 40M single-frequency transceiver (assembled and without batteries).

But these are all niche efforts that don't involve copying, and aren't even priced particularly competitive level. With new 100W HF transceivers starting at $1k, these are more aimed at the entry-level ham market, though not at Technician Class licensees -- which are about half of the U.S. market. I think that it's quite doubtful that we will ever see cheap Chinese 6M SSB/CW rigs or 2M/1.25M/70cm "weak signal" radios.
There aren't even very good 10M options. The AnyTone AT-5555 is a relatively low-power rig, with 12W on CW and only 30W on SSB, and costs $210. This is pretty much the standard price/power range for most 10M "weak-signal" rigs, regardless of who makes them. A bit more promising is the AnyTone AT-6666, which is available for $250. It offers 60W on SSB. It has no CW capability, however.

While the Chinese manufacturers have revolutionised 2M and UHF FM ham radio, it seems unlikely to spread further. The target market was never amateur radio anyway; it was commercial and public service users forced into narrow-band by the FCC. That effort was largely stymied by the FCC's Part 90 standards and certification. The "VFO" button on the BaoFengs, for example, made them forbidden for Part 90 use. It didn't stop them from being certified for Part 95 use, though. Thus, the Chinese settled for the amateur radio market, while developing new models that did comply with Part 90.

The future will probably hold further copying, as some manufacturers try to cash in on the fading wave. But prices really can't fall much lower, and the amateur market is already saturated. It seems as if every ham has at least one Chinese HT, especially new hams. There's a limit to how many people are willing to get a licence, and new hams often find that their shiny, new Chinese HT or mobile is met with derisive scorn by those that they hoped to join. In five years, we'll look back on this as some kind of Golden Age of growth for the hobby, as so many of those even mildly intrigued by the potential of amateur radio will have been dissuaded from pursuing it -- and will have told others what to expect.

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