U.S. amateur licences: slowed growth

The national amateur licence numbers for January have been up for a few weeks now, and I thought I'd write up a brief look at the latest trends. 

Much slower growth

• Total licences dropped by 382 compared to 12/15, but still showing an increase over November.  
• The Extra Class only gained 90, which is the smallest increase since 9/14. 
• The Advanced Class numbers dropped a bit more steeply than average (311). 
• The most interesting development is that General Class licences dropped 160. There have been six other month-to-month drops in General licences since 1/14, and three of them have been in the past twelve months. Even considering the loss of 60 General Class licences in January 2016, the current level is still higher than it was back in November. 
• Technician Class licences hit a new record, but it's a mere gain of 79 over the previous month. We're still more than 5300 above this same point last year, but that pales in comparison to the 8600+ gain from 1/14 to 1/15. 

  It's quite possible that "upgrade fever" is losing steam under the relentless pressure of expirations. We've had three month-to-month drops in Technician numbers since 1/15, and three month-to-month drops in total licences over the same period. If the poor showing in Technician Class licences is due to upgrades to General, then why did General Class licences decline? Upgrades to Extra Class don't account for this drop. And the decline in total licences is a pretty convincing fact in favour of dismissing upgrades and lateral moves between Classes as the culprit. 


  I'm more inclined to attribute the drop in General Class numbers to expirations (i.e. death). With both General and Technician Class growth becoming sporadic, it seems that the hobby is starting to lose the ability to replace expiring licences.