No problems here!

  I came across an article on amateurradio.com about the decline of the hobby. Written by KE9V, the post is a collection of false premises, strawman arguments, and missed conclusions. In other words, it's typical of the way hams discuss their own hobby. 

https://ke9v.net/2026/01/24/your-fault.html 

 The conclusion of the article subtly lines up with the Approved Opinions that the hobby's group-think dictates: the only problem with the hobby is that stupid people think there are problems in the hobby. 

 The author presents a series of compromises and concessions that hams have made in pursuit of popularity. The implication is that changing things hasn't helped, so change of any kind is bad and pointless. It never dawns on KE9V that these changes failed to address the real problems, instead mostly working on the margins. It's like saying, "I rotated the tires, but the engine still won't start!"

 For example, the ARRL's public relations campaign failed to move the needle. That's true. But suppose that the hobby didn't have a "public relations problem" to begin with, or that we're not losing licensed amateurs because of "image" -- but maybe something else. Yet, this is spun as just another case of some party trying to fix something that wasn't broken.

 One glaring false premise is that KE9V lumps two different problems into one; a logical fallacy. Attracting new amateurs and retaining existing amateurs are two very different problems that are addressed in very different ways. And the real issue is not that we aren't attracting new licensees. We've been doing a reasonably good job on that front. Instead, the issue is that we aren't able to hold on the licensees that we already have. 

 Since the end of 2022, the number of licensed amateur operators has declined by about 30.6k. Of that figure, 24k were Technician Class licenses. The General Class has largely stagnated, only showing a net loss of about 800 licenses during that period. 

 This shows that there are a lot of people out there who got their license, and didn't see it as worthwhile to renew it after ten years. And it also shows that upgrading to General Class isn't as appealing as it once was to Techs. So... if your strawman 'solution' is to tinker with the licensing and testing, then you aren't addressing the issue of retaining existing licensees. And you shouldn't imply that efforts to bring new hams in reflects on efforts to retain hams. But, the false premise is spun as: changes to licensing and testing haven't stopped the decline in numbers, so changing anything in the hobby is futile and pointless. 

 The retention issues are the result of poor social interactions. KE9V dances around this as a possibility, but ultimately (and facetiously) dismisses the notion as just another failed narrative in a futile effort to fix something that was never broken. 

 As is typical in amateur 'discussions', a false dichotomy is implied. Senior hams can only be openly hostile or fawningly ass-kissing to new hams. There's no middle ground, apparently. And since we know that the former premise isn't true, we can (supposedly) safely conclude that the latter premise must be true. Since new hams aren't attacked, insulted, ridiculed, and verbally abused on a regular basis by every senior ham, then we are supposed to accept this as proof that there are no deficiencies whatsoever in the way new entrants are dealt with -- or the way existing Technicians are interacted with. If it's not horribly one way, it must be completely the other way. This kind of binary, zero-sum, black-and-white thinking is expressed throughout virtually all discussions of any aspect of the hobby among hams. By way of this false premise, KE9V concludes that senior hams have done everything humanly possible -- because they haven't been uniformly and constantly hostile. 

 The same problems with the 'welcome' that new hams get play out throughout the ten-year term of existing Technician Class license-holders. And these problems have nothing to with licensing or testing requirements, privileges, "image", or a lack of outright hostility. These problems are all social in nature, but we refuse to accept that. Instead, we chalk it up to technical matters. If only new hams (and existing Techs) could get some help with their massive ignorance, then they would feel welcome and take their place among the community -- or so the narrative goes. 

 In my opinion, this narrative is not based in fact. New hams aren't that ignorant, or at least they know enough to navigate the aspects of the hobby they do engage in. The problem is not found in some imaginary faction of cranky, verbally-abusive Bad Guys snarling, "Yer an idiot, and I'm not gonna help you!". Yet, whenever any issues involving unconstructive social interactions arise, the 'problem' is immediately and incontrovertibly frozen into an imaginary scenario where the poor, dumb Tech was left traumatized by a brush with Evil Bad Guys and now they think that all hams are Evil Bad Guys. Each case must be examined in a vacuum, to avoid seeing a wider issue emerging. By creating an imaginary problem (Scary Bad Guys) and dismissing it, we can safely dismiss the consideration of any other problems. Zero-sum reasoning.

 What any new entrant (or any existing ham that admits to being a Technician) experiences is the idea that they are "second-class". They are not allowed to express opinions on the hobby, unless they scrupulously line up with the Approved Opinions of the hobby's group think. None of their experiences will be considered valid, just rejected like the babblings of an infant. None of their interests are taken seriously or supported, unless those interests involve HF operation with a General Class license. There's an underlying impression that these responsible, reasonably intelligent adults are just a little too dim to know what they really want. So, as a helpful, noble soul who wants to advance the hobby and make people feel welcome, the senior ham stoops down from his lofty realm to guide the amoeba-like intellect of the poor, hapless Technician. 

 Again, this is a false premise and solution in search of a problem. It's a firm belief that any Technician is undoubtedly inferior, but that they can be taught to be worthwhile someday. Just an aside to any senior hams reading this: you aren't nearly as good at concealing this belief as you seem to think you are. 

 This is a hobby that requires social interaction in order to participate. It would seem obvious that some analysis of how the social hierarchy functions, how this hierarchy plays out in social exchanges, and how constructive these exchanges are is something that shouldn't be dismissed by false premises and strawman arguments. NONE of this has anything to do with operating a radio, so it's unclear to me how this plays into the "technical skills" narrative. Sure, some Technicians might not have the skills to engage in HF operation. But they aren't doing that, are they? You could also say that a considerable number of senior hams lack skills in aspects of the hobby like microwave, packet, and satcom. Yet, none of that seems to be important to those who are obsessed with "technical skills". 

 What does the hobby gain from this rigid social hierarchy and contempt for the entry-level Class? If it's supposed to motivate Technicians to "earn the respect" of senior hams, then it's failing miserably at that goal. If senior hams need someone to look down upon in order to feel good about their involvement in amateur radio, doesn't that undermine the narrative that HF is the Promised Land that is the solution to every problem? These senior hams already have arrived in the Promised Land of Eternal Happiness, yet they somehow need some grubby ego boost to make it worthwhile? Why do senior hams have so much difficulty in understanding that some people aren't interested in the aspects of the hobby that they are intrigued by? Aren't these supposed to be the wisest, most intelligent people on the planet?

 Are clubs "welcoming"? It depends on how you define the word. Rather than look at the social situation from the new entrants' point of view, we always choose to look at it from the senior hams' point of view. And, as always, we dishonestly employ strawman logic. Did the club allow them on the repeater? Okay, they're "welcome". Whatever social exchanges transpire from that are irrelevant, because the noble senior hams have already made the new entrant "welcome". Did the club let them into a meeting? Yes. How "welcoming" do you want to get, buddy? They spoke the magic words, "Welcome to Amateur Radio", didn't they? From the senior hams' perspective, the club has bent over backwards to make the new entrant seem welcome. 

 From the other perspective, the Technician (new or existing) finds a challenging and demeaning social situation. They arrive at a meeting to find a dozen geriatrics over 70. Beyond the glib, inane, and insincere "welcome" magic words, they find probing questions designed to determine if they are "the right sort" -- or "worth the effort". The senior hams have immediately mentally classed the Tech as a moron, so they believe the Tech will never catch on when they treat the new entrant like a moron. 

 To the Tech entering that social situation, it becomes clear that they are only welcome if:

• they express shame over being a lowly Technician. 
• they readily concede that whatever observations, opinions, interests, or knowledge they may have are inconsequential and must always be abandoned to align with their Wise Elders. 
• they say that they desperately want HF phone privileges. 
• they make it clear that they are helpless without the guidance of the Wise Elders. 
• they find constant discussion of geriatric issues to be compelling and intriguing. 
• they are unperturbed by having any reasonable thing they say turned into something stupid that they never even implied. 
• they are willing to spend large sums of money to buy new gear that is approved of by their new Masters in the hobby. 

 I should probably add that the new entrant must be willing to at least nod along with the flakiest right-wing opinions, and must never question clearly false statements by his "superiors" on matters well outside amateur radio. It's amazing how quickly these Good Guys characterize any kind of independent thought as "uppity". If a senior ham says that Quito is the capital of Peru (as happened to me), you must nod along and defer to your "superior". 

 In short, the new entrant feels as if they are considered equivalent to a dim-witted child who requires supervision and is on some kind of poorly-defined "probation". The existing Tech license-holder is already well aware of their position at the bottom of the totem-pole, so they would find it less glaring (though unsurprising). These issues involve social interaction, not licensing or testing, technical skill level, or magic words being uttered. The Good Guy senior ham is well-intentioned, but ultimately fails in conveying "friendliness" because they simply can't consider the Technician to be anything other than an inferior moron. 

 After ten years of being condescended to in every way by "Helpful Good Guys", the Tech must ask themselves if it's worth the effort to get their General Class license -- not for the privileges, but merely to allow some stuck-up senior ham permission to consider them to be something more than sub-human. That's the unspoken social contract that KE9V is oblivious to. And that's why we can't hold on to existing Technicians. Senior hams vastly over-estimate the value of their condescending little pats on the head, just as they vastly over-estimate their skill at concealing their disdain of their inferiors. Again, what benefit is gained by alienating and demeaning their fellow operators?

 We haven't tried changing this situation because it isn't a legal, technical, or procedural problem. It's an attitude problem, and that problem belongs to the senior hams. Instead, they spin any discussion of the social phenomena into glib advice as to how the Technician can better ingratiate themselves to their superiors. Senior hams see that as being grand, constructive, and helpful. Everyone else sees that as clueless, tone-deaf, demeaning, and alienating. 

 Underneath all of this is some very strange and unspoken idea that some kind of "hazing" is called for in this hobby. Along with that is an equally delusional notion that people will put up with any amount of disdain and contempt if it results in their ascendancy to acceptance. Maybe this was somewhat true in limited situations in the world before internet and cell phones. We constantly see the idea expressed that we need to "go back to what worked" in the past -- as if the technological context the hobby exists in hasn't changed at all. For example, once upon a time in the Dark Ages before cell phones, people were willing to learn Morse code and take an exam to access phone patches and have a "mobile phone". Now they aren't willing to do that. Hmm. 

 This is, in fact, a hobby. It's something that people do for recreation. Why apply some sort of social hierarchy that's slightly more rigid than the military to a recreational activity? Even the military acknowledges the value and contributions of the lower ranks. Yet senior hams can't even meet that low bar, preferring instead to eliminate their inferiors from their ranks.

 We also need to consider that there are now tens of thousands of ex-licensed Technicians out there, and they probably aren't spinning encouraging stories to prospective new hams. On the one hand you have a peer saying that they tried it and didn't like it. On the other hand, you have an arrogant geezer telling you that they might accept you as a human being -- if you play your cards right and do what they say. And the geezer thinks he's being very generous with this offer. Which is more compelling to the prospective operator?

 We're already seeing the Great Thought Leaders of the hobby pushing the idea of "grandfathering" the Technician Class altogether. Basically, we're designating roughly half (49%) of all licensed amateurs as unworthy, and framing their entrance to the hobby as a mistake. And the entire idea is pitched drenched in condescension and arrogance. Those poor dim Techs were lead into the hobby by the promise of HF operation privileges, and they became discouraged when they discovered that wasn't the case -- or so the narrative goes. That's why they left. Because they knew they could never find True Happiness as a lowly Technician... supposedly. The entire Technician Class is framed as a cruel hoax, and its victims too stupid to even grasp how they had been tricked into thinking their license was anything other than worthless. 

 And KE9V draws a logically-unsupported conclusion from all of this: senior hams are exhausted from all of the effort they've made to help the ungrateful insects at the bottom. 

 Hmm. KE9V is tired of other amateurs saying that we have a problem retaining existing amateurs, and he's even more tired of some stupid amateurs expressing the idea that making half of them into second-class citizens is not constructive. He's earned the right to treat Technicians like crap, hasn't he? Why is this even an issue, when those morons can always upgrade and be treated like a "real ham"? 

 And, truth be told, KE9V's critique is not some fringe opinion. It's firmly in line with the Approved Opinions of the hobby's rigid group-think, in fact. Nothing should change. We should go back to the 1950's order, in fact. We need to make it harder to get an amateur license, not easier. Then it will "mean something", we're told. I'm not sure which take is more ridiculous: the narrative that senior hams are some kind of technical elite working on the bleeding edge, or the notion that amateur radio was created to be a sanctuary for a demographic firmly living in the past. 

 Officially, the only problem that senior hams acknowledge as being even conditionally valid is that there are too many dumb and lazy people out there with amateur licenses. Now, of course, some people are implying that the steep decline in the number of amateur licenses might also fit into the definition of the term "problem". 

 Rather than address these concerns rationally, senior hams erect strawman arguments like "The hobby is DYING!", which they then knock down. See, there's not really a 'problem' now. Because, as long as there is some kind of activity somewhere -- even if it's only contrived activity -- the hobby is therefore "not dying". And "not dying" is, with the proper amount of cognitive distortion applied, the exact same thing as being healthy and robust. Zero-sum logic. If you're not dying, then you're perfectly healthy. Those are the only two options, per the hobby's group-think. And our Esteemed Elders constantly present this flawed logic as irrefutable wisdom. Someone can have chronic and daunting health issues, but that can be dismissed because they aren't dead, according to the brilliant binary, zero-sum logic senior hams have clung to for decades. Nope, the only possibility is that the chronically-ill person is perfectly healthy. Because they aren't dead. And therefore, the hobby is perfectly healthy... simply because it's not dead.

 It doesn't really matter if the hobby is "dying" or not, though. The numbers are dropping at an unprecedented scale. Oddly, when the numbers were going up, this was continually presented as proof that the Old Guard was doing all the right things and having huge success. When the numbers are now going down, the very same people tell us "the numbers don't matter". Even dumber, these very same people spent years telling us that everyone was actually just imagining a decline in the amateur licenses. And these very same people are now floating 'solutions' like purging the ranks of the hobby by half to support their delusions. One thing that is clearly "dying" is the credibility of the Great Thought Leaders in amateur radio. 

 It seems painfully obvious to me that we're now eager to sacrifice the growth and future of the hobby so that a minority has someone to look down on and feel superior to. And that minority is now "tired" of people pointing out that situation, judging by KE9V's post. And we're supposed to feel grateful to KE9V for explaining all of this to the inferior masses. He tried to be friendly to those lazy idiots. He was very careful to avoid explicitly calling them "lazy idiots", although he made it abundantly clear that he considers them to actually be lazy idiots. That's "friendly", isn't it? It's time for all of those dimwit losers and rank failures to start earning that condescending little pat on the head, after all.