The hobby ended 2024 with 9.6k fewer licensed amateur radio operators than it began the year with. Over the course of 2024, the number of Technician licenses declined by over 5.7k and the number of General Class licenses declined by over 1.5k. The Advanced Class declined by about 3k, and the Novice Class declined by about 800. The number of Extra Class licenses went up by 1350.
Since the end of 2022, there are 23.6k fewer licensed amateurs nationally. Of that number, 18.4k are Technician Class licenses and over 950 are General Class licenses.
The reaction
This has been a startling decline. The last time we had such a drop was in the years 2000 to 2007, when the hobby lost 26.4k licensed amateurs. That was a steady decline over the course of seven years, and resulted in the elimination of the Morse code testing requirement for any amateur license. We are very near that level of decline over the course of two years.
So roughly 25 years later, we are faced with the same situation. However, instead of engaging in any kind of introspection or action, this time the brilliant minds that shape the hobby's group-think are instead engaging in distortion, denial, and delusion. Those that haven't adopted this strategy have instead chosen fatalistic hand-wringing. "There's nothing you can do", they lament.
Those fighting the narrative have basically settled on a refinement of the glib, "It's just a short-term thing". They point to outdated statistics, or point to ten (or even 25) year periods to show that there's nothing to be concerned about.
In fact, we have gained 17.5k licensed amateurs compared to the 2014 totals (i.e. ten years ago). But this fact lacks critical context. If you go back a mere five years, however, the situation is starkly different -- a decline of 19.4k since 2019. And, as I've previously stated, that decline increases to 23.6k if you go back two years.
In the three-year period between the end of 2018 to the end of 2021, the number of licensed amateurs rose by 10.3k. Oddly, the Great Minds did not see this as a "short-term thing". Instead, they grabbed this fact with both hands and spun it not only as some kind of future guarantee, but also as a validation of the Old Guard's stale group-think.
Is it possible to square the idea that a three year pattern is an ironclad guarantee of future trends with the idea that a five year trend is some kind of insignificant fluke? Gaining 10.3k over ten years is an undeniable indication of growth and health, but losing 23.6k over two years can be dismissed as meaningless? Is this really the strongest argument that the thought leaders of the hobby can come up with?
Sadly, the answer is that, yes, this is the best spin that can be put on this delusional narrative. Basically, we need to wait five more years before we can conclude that this is an actual problem. Because ten years is the benchmark that the Wise Elders have established.
Imagine a doctor looking at a cancer patient who has been in steady decline for five years, but concluding that they'll be "just fine" because they were healthy ten years ago. Even more to the point, imagine a doctor dismissing the idea that that the same cancer patient even has a health problem because they were healthy 25 years ago. You probably wouldn't trust that doctor. Yet, this is pretty much the argument being used by some to deny that there is currently a problem -- things were fine in the past, so they must be fine now.
This is a very different approach than the one taken roughly 25 years ago in the face of huge declines in the amateur population. And we are even seeing blatantly dishonest narratives being put forward about that huge drop from 2000-2007. Rather than mention the code test elimination in February 2007, the recovery in license numbers back then is being presented as proof that the hobby can pick itself up by its bootstraps (so to speak). This is not only delusional, it's a gross distortion of the context.
Moreover, the Great Minds have conceded that the Technician Class is in a steep decline. They simply don't care. Most Technicians quickly pick up on the idea that they are seen as a sub-human, disposable portion of the amateur community by the Wise Elders, with their only value found in being potential future General Class licensees. The huge declines in the Tech Class are shrugged off, but the Old Guard has drawn a line in the sand over the idea that the General Class is declining. Figures from two (or even three) years ago are now tossed out as 'proof' that the General Class is actually growing.
Underlying all of this is the pathetic truth that most hams will willingly embrace dishonesty if it serves the cause. This goes well beyond "hopeful optimism" and moves into indoctrination and "faith". And it doesn't fit with a hobby that portrays itself as some kind of "intellectual elite". If you don't eagerly embrace the dogma, you are cast as stupid, evil, or both. And the Wise Elders are absolutely certain that this kind of group-think doesn't drive away new hams.
The trends
The last three months of 2024 showed some signs of improvement: tiny gains in Tech figures, small gains in the General Class, and fitful gains in the Extra Class.
Over the course of 2024, however, the pattern has been one of fairly big "churn". Figures increase by hundreds one week, only to decline by hundreds the next.
In conversations with "experienced" hams, I've expressed the opinion that a gain of 1.3k in the Extra Class over the course of 2024 is not really a very positive sign. Since the way we 'discuss' things in this hobby now is to put stupid words in someone else's mouth and beat that strawman to dust, this was 'heard' as "getting your Extra Class license isn't a big achievement". The idea that a net loss of 1.5k Generals to gain a net 1.3k Extras is a lateral move (at best) sailed over the heads of my "intellectual superiors".
Frankly, I see the small growth in the Extra Class as a failure of the "incentive licensing" concept. Do most operators upgrade to Extra Class for the privileges, or for the bragging rights? The "privileges" consist of access to a sub-band that only Extra Class license-holders are allowed on. Doesn't this imply that the General and Advanced Classes are grubby, low-life losers that require a sanctuary to escape from? I really doubt that most operators upgrade to Extra for the "privileges". Nothing about this view belittles the achievement of those who pass the Extra Class exam. It merely addresses their motive. And, for a hobby that actually does see gaining a General Class license upgrade as a way to escape the 'ghetto' inhabited by Dumb Techs, it's completely relevant. If the Dumb Techs don't see the chance of hanging out with putatively erudite snobs as attractive, then the entire "incentive licensing" concept falls apart. And... if the Dumb Techs get tired of being treated as grubby, low-life losers, they might just not renew their license when it expires.
But still, we go down a very stupid rabbit-hole of cognitive dissonance on this subject. 'Experienced' hams are free to ignore what I actually say and substitute it with very stupid things that they 'know' I "really mean"... but they can only be held accountable for things that they explicitly say. And, even if someone was clumsy enough to actually say that they consider Technician Class licensees to be "grubby, low-life losers", it would be dismissed -- because Techs can't possibly grasp what their superiors really mean. And it never dawns on the 'superiors' that this mentality is the proof of their beliefs.
Thus far in 2025, we've seen relative stability. The continued decline in the Advanced Class wipes out any small, ephemeral gains in other Classes. Both the General and Tech Classes have seen very small drops in the first half of January 2025.
Summary
Rather than seeing the Technician Class as fellow hams with valid experiences and opinions, the Wise Elders have charitably cast them as idiots who can redeem themselves by upgrading to General. Most responsible, reasonably-intelligent males see this kind of condescension as insulting and demeaning. Turning their experiences into very stupid Desperate Cries for Help is not constructive. The Technician Class makes up about half of the licensed amateur population. Mentally casting half of all licensed amateurs as developmentally-disabled children blubbering over the trauma of encountering Bad Guys goes beyond "demeaning" -- especially when the ill treatment comes from supposed Good Guys who think they are being 'helpful' and 'encouraging'.
It's very odd that casting half of all hams as clueless morons is considered appropriate, reasonable, and proper. It's even dumber when any critique of unconstructive behavior from "experienced" hams is routinely portrayed as saying, "All hams are jerks!". It's okay to dismiss half of licensed amateurs as idiots, but any trivial criticism of the other half is crossing the line and an indictment of the entire hobby? It makes sense only if you view one half of licensed amateurs as worthy, and the rest as disposable morons who need to prove themselves or exit the hobby.
How do you attract and retain people to amateur radio when you dismiss half of them as worthless idiots whose only value is in parroting dogma and admitting that they are sub-humans that crave the approval of the other half?
Of course, every self-designated Good Guy reading this is nodding along and blaming the Bad Guys for the situation. Yeah, every Good Guy 'knows' that Technician Class licensees are idiots, but those Good Guys are willing to overlook that and 'help' the poor morons. And this isn't condescending at all. Designating yourself as a Good Guy Who Can Do No Wrong merely absolves you of the need to engage in introspection or self-reflection. It's those other Bad Guys that are the problem, and the 'solution' is to ignore them. Brilliant, really. Those Dumb Tech idiots would never have arrived at that conclusion on their own. Luckily, they have you around to spit out glib 'wisdom'.
Hmm. So, the Good Guy 'solution' is to ignore half of the amateur population, or become a condescending a-hole themselves.
None of this has anything to do with operating a radio.
Instead, it's the ridiculous and toxic social environment that the hobby's group-think has embraced that drives people away.
It's the stupid group-think dogma that creates a social hierarchy more rigid than the military. The purpose is designed to be an incentive to upgrade, but it really just encourages new hams to bail out early on, before they invest a lot of money and time.
Hey, I know that I'm just a Dumb Tech to most of you. But I also understand two things:
- Amateur radio is something that people do for fun. If you make it something other than fun, people will think twice before even turning on their radio.
- Amateur radio is something that requires another person's participation to make it worthwhile. Much like the Great Pumpkin, you may really believe that the person on the other end of your QSOs appears out of the ether to deserving hams who do the Right Things, but that's just something that a developmentally-disabled child would think.
But... if you point that out, the Wise Elders will 'helpfully translate' that into:
- Duhhh... I want to be like you, but I'm just so stoopid! Please help me!
- I want all of the privileges without doing any of the work!
How is this strategy working out so far?
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