May 2024 was another month of declines in amateur radio license numbers. The only bit of good news is that the number of Extra Class licenses has slowly increased since the start of the year, even though these gains were whittled away somewhat in 5/24.
National
We ended May with virtually 2800 fewer licensed amateurs than we started the month with (2798, to be exact). This is, by far, the largest monthly drop so far this year. Previously, March 2024 had that dubious distinction with 1682 fewer licenses.
Well over 1200 of that decline came from the Technician Class (1249 exactly). And nearly 800 came from the General Class (791). It's the first time this year that we've seen a net decline of Technician Class licenses over 1000. It's also the first time we've seen a net loss of General Class licenses over 500. In 2023, it wasn't particularly unusual to see gains of a dozen or so in the General Class over the course of a month.
The rapid decline in General Class numbers undermines the glib 'explanations' that were previously tossed around when the declines were limited to Techs. For those who are already pointing to upgrades as an 'explanation', the numbers don't bear that out.
Nationally, we've gained 317 Extra Class license-holders since the start of the year. But there are now 1549 fewer Generals than we began the year with. So...yes, a few hundred amateurs have upgraded from General to Extra so far this year. But more than 1200 others simply let their license lapse.
Since the end of 2022, the hobby has lost 20.6k licenses.
Minnesota
The numbers for Minnesota have largely stabilized, after losing more than 1300 over the last year. The totals still decline every month, but 11.3k is the general area. So far this year, the net decline has been 113 licenses.
In May, MN ended the month with 22 fewer licenses than it started with: 10 Technicians, 8 Advanced, 4 General and 1 Novice lost -- with a gain of 1 Extra Class license. It's very similar to last month's decline of 17 licenses.
California
CA had a slightly worse than average month for license numbers, with a net decline of 517 amateurs. Of that figure, 87 were General Class, and 336 were Technician Class in May 2024. Another 70 were Advanced Class and 13 were Extra Class. There were no gains in any Class.
So far this year, the licensed amateur population of California has declined by a net 2017 licenses. 60 of that figure are Extra Class, 334 are General Class, and 1410 are Technician Class.
Over the last twelve months, the state has lost about 4000 net licenses, with about 2900 of that being Techs.
Summary
Some will point to the current total of 748k and say, "That's still a lot". It's where we were at when 2017 ended. For those who think that 748k is "still a lot", I invite them to think about what figure would no longer be "a lot". 500k? 100k? 10k? Hey, 10k is still a "a lot", right? I say this because this is where the glib denial of the reality will bring us.
The Technician Class stopped growing years ago. Now, the General Class has stopped growing. The Extra Class has grown only at a glacial pace, and that growth is slowing down now.
This doesn't necessarily mean "the hobby is dying". It means it's not growing any more, certainly. The best advice I can offer is for senior hams (i.e. those licensed more than ten years) to engage in some serious self-reflection regarding how we attract and retain new hams. If that self-reflection causes you to double-down on EmComm (When All Else Fails) and HF operation being the very definition of the hobby, you are embracing a losing narrative. Yes, you will still attract a small number. But you will lose far more in the current technological context.
We are rapidly moving into a state where cell phones can text with satellites. Rather than dream up fantasy scenarios where disaster strikes AND satellites are down, we should realistically assess that most EmComm situations currently involve loss of comms for hours, not days.
We are already seeing places like Puerto Rico opting for GMRS over amateur radio for local comms. Why? Because the entire extended family can operate on a single license without an exam. And most don't see much value in talking to someone in Romania or Brazil when things get bad. They want to know which local roads are open, if their friends and family are okay, and what the local situation really is. They aren't going to get that from some ARES net. And they don't need to know which local amateur repeater is on-air in which band. They are already familiar with (and proud of) their local GMRS repeater -- which is likely to be solar-powered.
Local comms rule every time. We can continue to look down on these people who don't know the 20M FT8 frequency, or we can make them allies. Guess which path Puerto Rican hams have chosen. Yep, it's condescension and elitism. Instead, people should get their General license -- it's not that hard, after all. You can reach farther (nobody cares), and talk to Smart People (who know nothing of your local situation). And you can join ARES nets where people are far more concerned about the quality of your station than what you have to say. Oh, and your grandma can't talk to you, because she's not smart enough to hang with the "real hams".
We're pricing ourselves out of the EmComm market. Yet, we're still pitching EmComm scenarios that exclude Technicians. And we continue to pretend that there are millions eager to get in on this "action". We've lied to ourselves for so long that we can't objectively see the reality.
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