The U.S. hit the peak number of total licensees back in June 2014. While the stats show consistent upgrading to higher licence Classes, the totals continue to decline.
There were 761 fewer hams from August to September (the latest month for public figures). That doesn't sound like a lot, but last year during same period we gained nearly the same amount (753). I don't recall a lot of hams dismissing those gains as being small. Instead, there was a general giddiness among hams over the amazing growth.
About half of September's decline (356) came from 'obsolete' licence Classes: Advanced and Novice.
Technician licences dropped 333. General Class lost 144, and Extra Class gained 81.
There's no good way to 'spin' this. Sure, some Techs upgraded, but the more that you push this line of reasoning the more you are forced to concede that a whole lot of Generals left the scene. If 333 upgraded to General, then why did the total number of Generals go down? You can't claim that the Generals upgraded to Extra, because there aren't that many new Extras.
September's drop in total licences is looking pretty good in comparison to July's drop of over 1450. July saw 680 'obsolete' Class licences go dead, which was supposed to be some kind of consolation. Optimists pointed to this situation as the hobby simply experiencing the deaths of people that had been "on the books" for some time. Apparently hams didn't ever die prior to July 2014, then. No, of course they did. The effect on the numbers was just hidden by the new growth of people joining the hobby. Now that the number of new hams has dwindled, the true situation (which the optimists ignored) is readily apparent.
As long as the bulk of the drops each month are in the 'obsolete' Classes, most hams will continue to ignore the underlying issue. The Great Die-Off has begun. The Great Growth is over. Even during that period of growth, it was noticed by some that the majority of new hams were retirees or nearing retirement.
It doesn't take a numbers genius to see that the hobby is no longer replacing its dead with new hams. And, with a licence term of ten years, the true situation could be a heck of a lot worse than these figures show. Any sober analysis should take into account that there are a whole lot of "licensed operators" in the cemetery already.
Of course, these are just numbers. Licences don't talk; people do. With activity declining, it really doesn't matter how many people have licences. What matters is how many are actively using them. That's something that these statistics don't reveal.
The other issue is the distribution of licence numbers. Some States are growing, while others are losing hams. The State breakdowns end at June 2014 -- the peak. Even in this rosy light, the divide between growing and stagnant parts of the country is obvious.
The bottom line is that anyone who currently has even a remote interest in radio has already tried amateur radio. There might be a lot of people with a licence and an unused HT stuck in a drawer, and they might renew their licences because it's not hard to do so. But only a delusional person would count these people as "active" hams. For whatever reason, they have not found the hobby to be compelling and it's unlikely that they will encourage others to try it out. Yes, they are still counted in the numbers. But that means nothing in the real world.
EDIT: Throughout 2015, more than 30.7k Technician Class licences will expire, and about 3500 General Class licences will also expire. More than 61.5k licences will expire in total. Many will, of course, renew. If 75% renew (perhaps optimistic, considering mortality), that means we need to find more than 15.3k new hams in 2015 just to tread water. In 2011, the totals grew by 7.5k, and in 2012 we added 7.6k to the total. This means that the hobby needs to draw about twice as many new hams in 2015 as it has done in the "boom" years. It will take a renewal rate of more than 88%, and no drop in new operators getting their first licences compared to the "boom" years, for the totals just to stay even. Keep this in mind as you spin optimistic scenarios in your imagination.
7 comments:
"Amateur radio licences decline for third straight month"
Looking at the data you linked, I don't see that.
Sep-14 723,771 - decrease from Aug
Aug-14 724,532 - increase from July
Jul-14 723,755 - decrease from June
Jun-14 725,216 - high water mark
Fixed the title for you.
July, August, and September all show lower numbers than June. That's a decline.
Thanks, but I didn't mean for you to change anything - just trying to understand your analysis of the data.
I don't find it at all surprising that the number of licenses, generally speaking (no pun intended) is on the decline, for the very same reasons you provided. When I can download Skype and talk to someone half-way across the world, AND with better clarity than most phone lines offer, why bother with radio? As such, I see the decline in numbers as a natural progression. However, that in and of itself does not mean the end of radio. It is simply means that those who have licenses should theoretically be that more committed to using them. Did I say theoretically?
And speaking of silent keys, my great uncle KE6HUJ was recently added to the list.
~KD0ZSW
Sorry to hear about your great uncle, Dustin.
I don't find the current situation very surprising, either. When I started this blog about two years ago, I wrote a post about this inevitability. People laughed and pointed at the growth in licence numbers.
Yeah, theoretically, the operators that are left should be more "hard-core". The problem is that radio is a *two-way* affair, and requires someone else on the other end. Nobody gets a licence to throw out their sign on dead repeaters, or to CQ without a response. Lack of activity discourages further activity, just as activity draws more activity. Even enthusiasts become passive listeners, then don't even turn their radios on much.
I don't think that it means "the end of radio". It means that we need to re-think the role of amateur radio. The combustion engine didn't mean "the end of horses", after all.
As a newly minted Tech, I'm often asked why I bother. The hobby has a bad rep: Lots of politics at the club level, the test is supposed to be hard (it's not), there is lots of 'data' out there but very little easily accessible (this blog being the exception). 'Elmer Approved' radios are too expensive. Old fat guys dominate the seen.
I saw the same problems with I joined Freemasonry. We turned our Lodge around by making sure it was fun. For us it was good fun, good fellowship, and living up to our obligations.
I think HAM clubs should get more active, have BBQs, campouts, days at the beach. Expand tech that attracts a younger crowd. My kids perked up with I told them that they could run radios from their phones. In this day and age, there is no way I should have trouble programming a radio.
I think that you put your finger on the problem very concisely.
The "old fat guys" seem to think that the airwaves are their own private club. They cautiously 'welcome' newcomers -- but only if they are indistinguishable from "old fat guys" in their interests and cultural perspective -- and they stand ready to withdraw that provisional 'welcome' on the flimsiest of grounds. "Not serious" is the most common charge made by these people.
The hobby is too serious already, but the "old fat guys" think that it's not serious enough.
It took several months, but I found fun people in our community. I didn't find them in clubs, nor in introductions from the "old fat guys".
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